Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 769 
 WTPA43 PHFO 250845
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 11 PM HST TUE AUG 24 2004
  
 ESTELLE REMAINS WEAK WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
 NOCTURNALLY INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPOSED
 WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 0351 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER ESTELLE SHOWS
 A 25 KT INITIAL FORECAST STRENGTH IS QUITE ACCURATE. 
 
 MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE
 WEST...AND THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE UNCHANGED THIS ROUND. MODELS
 CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO A FORECAST WEAKENING IN THE SHEAR
 ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH WARMER SSTS OVER WATERS TO THE
 WEST...BY STRENGTHENING ESTELLE SLIGHTLY IN THE LONG RANGE...96 AND
 120 HOURS. WE FEEL REINTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY...BUT WE WILL KEEP
 ESTELLE ALIVE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS AS
 A COMPROMISE. IF CONVECTION PERSISTS AND/OR SPREADS...THIS FORECAST
 MAY CHANGE. 
  
 FORECASTER POWELL
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/0900Z 14.4N 152.6W    25 KT
  12HR VT     25/1800Z 14.3N 154.2W    25 KT
  24HR VT     26/0600Z 14.2N 156.5W    25 KT
  36HR VT     26/1800Z 14.2N 158.9W    20 KT
  48HR VT     27/0600Z 14.3N 161.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 166.3W    15 KT...DISSIPATED
  
  
  
 $$
 
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for ESTELLE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman