769
WTPA43 PHFO 250845
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST TUE AUG 24 2004
ESTELLE REMAINS WEAK WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
NOCTURNALLY INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPOSED
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 0351 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER ESTELLE SHOWS
A 25 KT INITIAL FORECAST STRENGTH IS QUITE ACCURATE.
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE
WEST...AND THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE UNCHANGED THIS ROUND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO A FORECAST WEAKENING IN THE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH WARMER SSTS OVER WATERS TO THE
WEST...BY STRENGTHENING ESTELLE SLIGHTLY IN THE LONG RANGE...96 AND
120 HOURS. WE FEEL REINTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY...BUT WE WILL KEEP
ESTELLE ALIVE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS AS
A COMPROMISE. IF CONVECTION PERSISTS AND/OR SPREADS...THIS FORECAST
MAY CHANGE.
FORECASTER POWELL
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 14.4N 152.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 14.3N 154.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 14.2N 156.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 14.2N 158.9W 20 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 14.3N 161.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 28/0600Z 14.5N 166.3W 15 KT...DISSIPATED
$$
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