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 WTNT45 KNHC 072033
 TCDAT5
  
 HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012
  
 ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
 DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
 CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
 HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX.  GIVEN
 THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY
 POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.  RESTRENGTHENING IS
 EXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID
 WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN
 MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN.  ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS
 SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
 THAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.
  
 BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES.  DYNAMICAL TRACK
 MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO
 MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
 MEXICO.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER
 NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT
 NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/2100Z 18.8N  86.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  08/0600Z 19.4N  88.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
  24H  08/1800Z 19.7N  90.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  36H  09/0600Z 19.8N  92.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
  48H  09/1800Z 19.8N  94.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
  72H  10/1800Z 19.5N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH