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 752 
 WTNT45 KNHC 071456
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012
  
 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS
 MORNING FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 989 MB...BUT
 SO FAR THE SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
 HIGHER THAN 55 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA
 SUGGEST SOME EXPANSION OF THE INNER WIND FIELD...WHICH MAY
 PARTIALLY EXPLAIN THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING.  CIRRUS
 MOTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN
 OVER THE STORM.  SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
 FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT UP TO LANDFALL...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE
 PRIOR TO REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE NHC WIND SPEED
 FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODEL
 PREDICTIONS.
  
 CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 290/12.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK
 FORECAST ARE REQUIRED.  ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
 WESTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NHC TRACK
 FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
 THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFS SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE
 LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EVEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INTO
 THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN 4-5 DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/1500Z 18.1N  85.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  08/0000Z 18.6N  86.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  08/1200Z 19.0N  89.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
  36H  09/0000Z 19.4N  91.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
  48H  09/1200Z 19.4N  93.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
  72H  10/1200Z 19.2N  96.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
  96H  11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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