Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 365 
 WTNT45 KNHC 061456
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
  
 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM THIS
 MORNING FOUND THAT ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE CENTER IS
 LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY POSITION.  IT
 IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS A RESULT OF A REFORMATION
 OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON
 RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS AND VISUAL ESTIMATES FROM THE
 HURRICANE HUNTERS.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED
 AND...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF
 DEEP CONVECTION... THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
 STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A
 HURRICANE...AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS
 IN REASONBALE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
 HWRF MODEL.
  
 WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE
 UNCERTAIN AND MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8.  ALTHOUGH THE
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
 WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE
 WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
 NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
 LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/1500Z 15.8N  80.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  07/0000Z 16.2N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  07/1200Z 16.8N  84.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  08/0000Z 17.5N  86.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  08/1200Z 18.2N  88.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  09/1200Z 19.0N  92.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  10/1200Z 19.0N  95.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  11/1200Z 19.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for ERNESTO

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman