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 707 
 WTNT45 KNHC 060255
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
  
 A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -85C HAS
 DEVELOPED OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
 HOWEVER...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
 INDICATE THAT THIS HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO A STRENGTHENING
 TREND DESPITE THE SURFACE PRESSURE HAVING DECREASED TO ABOUT 1003
 MB. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 42 KT AND
 THE HIGHEST ADJUSTED-SFMR SURFACE WIND HAS BEEN AROUND 44 KT. BASED
 ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45
 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.
  
 ERNESTO HAS CONTINUED TO DECELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
 IS NOW 270/13 KT. THE DECOUPLED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX HAS
 DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
 VORTEX...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
 HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND ERNESTO
 SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND
 CONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH A TURN
 TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES
 CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA AND TV15.
  
 THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DONE A SUPERB JOB IN FORECASTING THE
 RECENT SHORT-TERM WOBBLE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OWING TO THE
 NORTHERLY SHEAR CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEING DISPLACED
 MORE THAN 60 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THOSE MODELS
 ARE ALSO FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
 CIRCULATIONS TO RE-COUPLE AND BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED AGAIN IN
 ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
 STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. UNTIL THAT TIME...HOWEVER...ERNESTO IS
 EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48
 HOURS...AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/0300Z 15.0N  79.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 15.3N  81.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 16.1N  83.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  07/1200Z 17.1N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  08/0000Z 17.9N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  09/0000Z 19.0N  91.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  96H  10/0000Z 20.0N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 120H  11/0000Z 20.5N  98.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
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