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 470 
 WTNT45 KNHC 052039
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
  
 ASIDE FROM A SMALL BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST 
 OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN
 DISORGANIZED PATCHES WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
 DRY AIR IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE
 STORM...ALONG WITH SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
 HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ABATING RECENTLY AND...ASSUMING
 THAT ERNESTO WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE UNFAVORABLE
 THERMODYNAMICS...SOME STRENGTHENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A DAY 
 OR SO. ONCE AGAIN...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
 SHOWS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE
 CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...THIS SEEMS
 DUBIOUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
 HFIP INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 THE ANTICIPATED DECELERATION IS FINALLY OCCURRING AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/17. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK
 FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO IS
 PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A TROUGH DIPS OVER THE EASTERN
 UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER
 REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MOST OF THE
 MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
 RESULT IN ERNESTO TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST IN THE
 LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE GFS AND ITS
 ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS WELL AS THE LATEST ECMWF...ARE SOUTH OF THIS
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/2100Z 15.3N  78.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  06/0600Z 15.5N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  06/1800Z 16.0N  82.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  07/0600Z 16.7N  84.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  07/1800Z 17.5N  86.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  08/1800Z 19.0N  90.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
  96H  09/1800Z 20.5N  94.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  10/1800Z 21.5N  97.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
  
 
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