967 
 WTNT45 KNHC 021436
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
 1100 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012
 
 AFTER LOOKING VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
 MORNING SHOWS A MARGINALLY BETTER STRUCTURE WITH EVIDENCE OF
 INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING.  NOAA BUOY 41040...TO THE NORTH OF
 THE CENTER...REPORTED 31 KT WINDS.  THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT
 PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN
 THE CYCLONE...SCHEDULED FOR 1800 UTC.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS
 THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT DAY OR
 TWO AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER THE 1200
 UTC SOUNDING FROM TRINIDAD SHOWED A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY JET
 TO THE SOUTH OF THE LATITUDE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS COULD BE
 AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 THE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SWIFT 17 KT.  A
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD MAINTAIN A
 WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A
 MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  LATER IN THE
 FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...A
 GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL
 TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 ONE BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED.  THIS IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE
 DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/1500Z 13.0N  54.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 13.4N  56.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  03/1200Z 13.8N  60.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  04/0000Z 14.1N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  04/1200Z 14.7N  66.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  05/1200Z 15.7N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  06/1200Z 17.0N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  07/1200Z 18.5N  82.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH