771 
 WTNT45 KNHC 020841
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
 500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012
  
 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY
 DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW
 CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
 T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
 DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE
 LATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES.  IF THIS IS
 THE CASE...THEN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
 NECESSARY.
  
 LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
 SPEED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 280/18.  LARGE-SCALE
 MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING
 THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN
 THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A MORE
 NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS TO THE
 NORTH.  THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A
 WESTWARD HEADING.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
 SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN
 TO THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF/GFS OUTPUT ON DAYS 4-5.
  
 UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...
 ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AFFECTING THE
 CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE
 DEPRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
 SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
 LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING THE
 SYSTEM SURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
 OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN 4-5 DAYS...WHERE INTENSIFICATION COULD
 OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 REDUCED...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS LINE
 WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0900Z 12.8N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 13.3N  55.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  03/0600Z 13.7N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  03/1800Z 14.0N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  04/0600Z 14.6N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  05/0600Z 15.7N  71.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  06/0600Z 16.7N  76.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  07/0600Z 18.0N  80.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA