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 563 
 FONT15 KNHC 011429
 PWSAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32     
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
 1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR 
 LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
 WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 TRENTON NJ     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 ATLANTIC CITY  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 BALTIMORE MD   34  5  10(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
  
 DOVER DE       34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
 ANNAPOLIS MD   34  8   8(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
  
 WASHINGTON DC  34 11  11(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
  
 OCEAN CITY MD  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 RICHMOND VA    34 26   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
  
 NORFOLK VA     34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 380N  775W 34 22   7(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
  12 380N  775W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  12 380N  775W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  24 400N  780W 34  1  14(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
  24 400N  780W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  24 400N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  36 415N  785W 34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
  36 415N  785W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  36 415N  785W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     30     25      25       0       0       0       0
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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