040 
 WTNT45 KNHC 010918
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31...CORRECTED
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006
 
 ...CORRECTED DESCRIPTION OF WHEN SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...
  
 WSR-88D DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS MOVING STEADILY
 INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
 010/13.  THE REFLECTIVITIES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS NORTH
 OF THE CENTER AND ALREADY EXTENDS INTO VIRGINIA...BUT RECENT
 VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT 50 KT WINDS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING
 EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE OCEAN...AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY
 INTENSITY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES
 FARTHER INLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE DECAY SHIPS
 GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATING ERNESTO TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR
 LESS THAN 12 MORE HOURS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
 TOMORROW AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC
 SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  BOTH
 THE INTENSITY AND TRACK SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE VERY
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
 NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
 PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
 PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
 OFFICE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0900Z 35.1N  77.8W    50 KT
  12HR VT     01/1800Z 36.7N  77.4W    35 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     02/0600Z 38.6N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     02/1800Z 40.5N  78.1W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     03/0600Z 42.7N  79.2W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
  
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 FORECASTER KNABB