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PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
RICHMOND VA 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
RICHMOND VA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
NORFOLK VA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
RALEIGH NC 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 7 49(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
WILMINGTON NC 50 2 18(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 31 35(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 17 16(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 14 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
CHARLESTON SC 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 334N 788W 34 46 28(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
12 334N 788W 50 29 11(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
12 334N 788W 64 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
24 360N 780W 34 X 23(23) 8(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
24 360N 780W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
24 360N 780W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 380N 780W 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
36 380N 780W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 380N 780W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 401N 785W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
48 401N 785W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
48 401N 785W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60 35 25 25 0 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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