033
FONT15 KNHC 310900
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2006
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 9( 9) 13(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
RALEIGH NC 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 10(10) 7(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 34(34) 7(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 2 51(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
CHARLESTON SC 34 5 32(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
CHARLESTON SC 50 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAVANNAH GA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 321N 795W 34 48 26(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
12 321N 795W 50 17 8(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
12 321N 795W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 346N 786W 34 X 33(33) 9(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
24 346N 786W 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
24 346N 786W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 370N 782W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
36 370N 782W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 370N 782W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 393N 785W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13)
48 393N 785W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 393N 785W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 445N 800W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10)
72 445N 800W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 445N 800W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 40 25 25 25 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
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