459 
 WTNT45 KNHC 310858
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
  
 THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
 TWO.  THE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW
 TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
 CIRCULATION.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
 HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT.  A
 DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
 FOUND MEAN WINDS IN THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF 51 KT WHICH EQUATES TO
 A SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 43 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE 
 SET AT 45 KT.
 
 ERNESTO HAS ABOUT 18 HOURS OVER WATER IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY. THE
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS
 FOLLOWED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT
 ERNESTO COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THE
 FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS AND PRIOR TO IT REACHING THE COAST...BUT
 REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY APPEARS UNLIKELY.  AFTER LANDFALL IN
 THE CAROLINAS...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME AN
 EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/13.  THE TRACK REASONING REMAINS
 UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
 CONTINUE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
 OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
 UNITED STATES.  AS ERNESTO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IT IS EXPECTED
 TO TURN SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A
 CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
 REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.
   
 THE 12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
 BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41010.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/0900Z 30.0N  80.2W    45 KT
  12HR VT     31/1800Z 32.1N  79.5W    50 KT
  24HR VT     01/0600Z 34.6N  78.6W    40 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     01/1800Z 37.0N  78.2W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     02/0600Z 39.3N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     03/0600Z 44.5N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB