061
FONT15 KNHC 301446
PWSAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 3(18) X(18)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 10(20) 1(21) X(21)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) 5(29) 1(30) X(30)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 7(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 5( 5) 30(35) 6(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 11(11) 32(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X 12(12) 17(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X 14(14) 3(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 5 16(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
ORLANDO FL 34 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 22 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
FT PIERCE FL 34 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
W PALM BEACH 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 285N 805W 34 22 11(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
12 285N 805W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
12 285N 805W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 310N 802W 34 1 37(38) 10(48) X(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49)
24 310N 802W 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
24 310N 802W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 335N 795W 34 X 7( 7) 32(39) 5(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46)
36 335N 795W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
36 335N 795W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
48 360N 790W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29)
48 360N 790W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
48 360N 790W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 400N 785W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) X(17)
72 400N 785W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
72 400N 785W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 448N 795W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10)
96 448N 795W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
96 448N 795W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 30 25 25 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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