808 
 WTNT45 KNHC 301446
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006
  
 THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS WELL-INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND WINDS
 HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
 DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. A FEW GUSTS TO TROPICAL
 STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
 ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
 REMAINS ORGANIZED AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ERNESTO TO
 RE-INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
 THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
 SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WATER AND THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT
 ERNESTO WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS A TROPICAL
 STORM...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.    
 
 ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH
 OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY STEER THE CYCLONE TO
 THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD
 SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
 HURRICANE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH BRING ERNESTO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
 COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48 HOURS ERNESTO
 SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME
 EXTRATROPICAL.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/1500Z 26.4N  80.9W    30 KT
  12HR VT     31/0000Z 28.5N  80.5W    35 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     31/1200Z 31.0N  80.2W    40 KT
  36HR VT     01/0000Z 33.5N  79.5W    45 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     02/1200Z 40.0N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     03/1200Z 44.8N  79.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA