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PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20) X(20)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) X(20)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 5(21) X(21)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 5(22) X(22)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 5(21) X(21)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) 4(28) X(28)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 4(29) X(29)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 12(31) 1(32) X(32)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 14(38) 1(39) X(39)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12)
RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 3(27) X(27)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 11(34) 2(36) X(36)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 11(44) 1(45) X(45)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 22(26) 6(32) 1(33) X(33)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 31(41) 8(49) 1(50) X(50)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 24(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 16(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
JACKSONVILLE 34 1 7( 8) 15(23) 6(29) X(29) 1(30) X(30)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 25(27) 14(41) 2(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ORLANDO FL 34 7 30(37) 5(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
ORLANDO FL 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 10 33(43) 6(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FT PIERCE FL 34 20 25(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 38 5(43) X(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44)
MIAMI FL 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
MARATHON FL 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 21 3(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
FT MYERS FL 34 17 8(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
VENICE FL 34 7 5(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
TAMPA FL 34 4 11(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 6 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 266N 811W 34 44 10(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
12 266N 811W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 266N 811W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 286N 808W 34 6 33(39) 9(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
24 286N 808W 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
24 286N 808W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 312N 801W 34 X 7( 7) 31(38) 10(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50)
36 312N 801W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
36 312N 801W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 338N 792W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 31(40) 7(47) 1(48) X(48)
48 338N 792W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17)
48 338N 792W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
72 375N 780W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) 3(29) X(29)
72 375N 780W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
72 375N 780W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
96 400N 780W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) X(18)
96 400N 780W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
96 400N 780W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 35 45 55 30 25 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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