827 
 WTNT45 KNHC 300303
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006
  
 RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT ERNESTO IS HOLDING STEADY WITH A
 PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT SUPPORT
 SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.
 SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE OVER LAND SHORTLY...THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO
 MORE CHANCE FOR STRENGTHENING. SLOW DECAY IS THEN EXPECTED OVER
 FLORIDA...AND HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING OCCURS AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES
 INTO THE ATLANTIC DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF A CYCLONE IS LEFT.  GLOBAL
 MODELS SUGGEST ERNESTO MAY BE GETTING SOME BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AT
 THAT TIME...AND THE GFDL STILL WANTS TO MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE IN
 THE ATLANTIC. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS MODEL...THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FOR A CAROLINA'S LANDFALL IS ONLY REDUCED SLIGHTLY AT
 THIS TIME.
 
 AN AIR FORCE FIX AND CENTER DROPSONDE INDICATE ERNESTO HAS NOT QUITE
 MADE LANDFALL. IN FACT...THE CENTER HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
 COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS 330/8. MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MODEL CONSENSUS. IN
 THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING OF THE
 FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT
 ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0300Z 24.9N  80.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     30/1200Z 26.6N  81.1W    35 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     31/0000Z 28.6N  80.8W    35 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     31/1200Z 31.2N  80.1W    45 KT
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 33.8N  79.2W    55 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 37.5N  78.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     03/0000Z 40.0N  78.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN