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 679 
 WTNT45 KNHC 291454
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006
 
 AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF
 ERNESTO IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED YET.  SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA
 PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 40 KT...AND A
 NEW FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE
 CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING...IMPLYING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS
 NOT OCCURRED THUS FAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DEEP
 CONVECTION...AND SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION.    THERE IS STILL
 A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
 TODAY...HOWEVER NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ERNESTO
 BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  THE
 OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE
 GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.  AFTER ERNESTO MOVES
 FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE
 INDICATES THAT IS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG
 THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
 
 SATELLITE-BASED CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
 EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES...AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY
 THUS FAR FROM LAND-BASED RADARS.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
 315/11.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
 WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND THEN
 ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN A
 COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED
 SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND SO HAS THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/1500Z 23.3N  79.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     30/0000Z 24.4N  80.6W    55 KT
  24HR VT     30/1200Z 26.3N  81.2W    55 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     31/0000Z 28.5N  81.1W    45 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     31/1200Z 30.9N  80.5W    60 KT
  72HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     02/1200Z 39.5N  79.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     03/1200Z 43.0N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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