592 
 WTNT45 KNHC 281453
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006
 
 ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST NEAR PLAYA
 CAZONAL...JUST WEST OF GUANTANAMO...AROUND 1200 UTC.  THE CENTER IS
 NOW MOVING OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THERE IS MOUNTAINOUS
 TERRAIN.  SOME MORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
 BACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.  ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES OVER
 WATER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
 ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE
 LATEST GFDL FORECAST...AND CALLS FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
 APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
 THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY.
 
 SINCE THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL
 MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/9.  A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
 THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO MAY BE IMPARTING SOME NORTHWARD
 COMPONENT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOTION.  DYNAMICAL MODELS
 INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN.  THIS
 SHOULD RESULT IN A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM. 
 GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE
 SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT
 EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES
 IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN OF
 ERNESTO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST SLIGHTLY
 EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
 CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS.
 
 THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE
 NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
 PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/1500Z 20.3N  75.7W    35 KT
  12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.5N  76.8W    35 KT
  24HR VT     29/1200Z 22.9N  78.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     30/0000Z 24.6N  80.0W    55 KT
  48HR VT     30/1200Z 26.6N  80.4W    70 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     31/1200Z 31.0N  80.0W    75 KT
  96HR VT     01/1200Z 34.0N  77.5W    75 KT
 120HR VT     02/1200Z 36.0N  75.0W    70 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH