805 
 WTNT25 KNHC 280239
 TCMAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2006
  
 AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE
 CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
 STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
 WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A HURRICANE
 WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
 AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
 AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
 WATCH FOR JAMAICA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
 FOR JAMAICA.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
 FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
  
 ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
 FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
 OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
 SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
 FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
 GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.  A HURRICANE WARNING
 MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
 AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
 PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
 BORDER.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND
 CAYMAN BRAC.
  
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
 MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  74.7W AT 28/0300Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   6 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
 34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE  50SW  80NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  74.7W AT 28/0300Z
 AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  74.4W
  
 FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.6N  75.7W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.2N  77.6W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 34 KT...100NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N  79.5W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
 34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N  81.0W
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.0N  82.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW  90NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N  81.0W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N  77.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  74.7W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN