200 
 WTNT25 KNHC 270822
 TCMAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006
  
 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
 SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
 WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
 BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
 JAMAICA.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
 TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
 EASTERN CUBA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
 ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
 HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA
 AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
 KEYS LATER TODAY.
  
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
 THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
 AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
 OF ERNESTO.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  73.1W AT 27/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
 50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
 34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  20SW  50NW.
 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE  50SW  80NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  73.1W AT 27/0900Z
 AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  72.8W
  
 FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.8N  74.5W
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
 50 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
 34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N  76.3W
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT...110NE  90SE  45SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N  78.1W
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N  80.2W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.4N  83.1W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N  84.0W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 30.0N  81.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N  73.1W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART