696 
 WTNT25 KNHC 270248
 TCMAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
 BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
 HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
 SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
 JAMAICA.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
 TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
 EASTERN CUBA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
 ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
  
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
 THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
 AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
 OF ERNESTO.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  72.7W AT 27/0300Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
 50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 34 KT....... 80NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE  30SW  75NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  72.7W AT 27/0300Z
 AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  72.2W
  
 FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N  74.2W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.2N  76.3W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW   0NW.
 34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.5N  78.5W
 MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.
 34 KT...100NE 120SE  75SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N  80.6W
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N  84.0W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N  87.0W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  72.7W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB