633 
 WTNT45 KNHC 270301
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
  
 THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
 UNCHANGED AT 997 MB.  THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT
 LEVEL WERE 56 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.
 SINCE THE PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT HAVE
 MEASURED THE MAXIMUM WIND...AND CONSIDERING 00 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
 KEPT AT 50 KT.  SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN PULSATING NEAR
 AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT RECENTLY IT HAS
 EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER.  THE MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
 RETREAT WESTWARD...AND THE RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
 TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LESSENING.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE
 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO IN A
 FEW HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY
 INFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...THE
 VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
 ERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE
 TOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.  AFTER REACHING
 THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS
 SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST
 AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR
 EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE
 NOGAPS.  IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
 HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE
 TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
  
 A SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE
 POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...PRIMARILY CUBA.  IF THE CENTER OF
 ERNESTO TAKES A PATH JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 TRACK...IT COULD SPEND QUITE A BIT OF TIME OVER CUBA AND WEAKEN
 SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 24 AND 48 HOURS FROM NOW.  HOWEVER...IF
 THE CENTER TAKES A PATH FARTHER LEFT IT WOULD SPEND VERY LITTLE
 TIME OVER CUBA.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
 THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION WITH CUBA...BUT IT SHOWS
 ONLY A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.  IT IS IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...TO REITERATE THAT ERNESTO
 COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
 GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
 PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/0300Z 16.8N  72.7W    50 KT
  12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.8N  74.2W    55 KT
  24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.2N  76.3W    65 KT
  36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.5N  78.5W    75 KT
  48HR VT     29/0000Z 21.8N  80.6W    85 KT
  72HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N  84.0W    80 KT
  96HR VT     31/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W    90 KT
 120HR VT     01/0000Z 29.0N  87.0W   100 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB