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PWSAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10)
CURACAO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 10(25)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 6(21)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 3(20)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) 1(23)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 6(30)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 12(37) 2(39)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 8(41) 1(42)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 1(17)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 17(31) 2(33) 1(34)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 9(23) 1(24) 1(25)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 6(28) X(28) 1(29)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
PONCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 137N 662W 34 21 11(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
12 137N 662W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 137N 662W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 145N 689W 34 1 30(31) 11(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44)
24 145N 689W 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
24 145N 689W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
36 153N 711W 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 10(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48)
36 153N 711W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
36 153N 711W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 160N 730W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 23(35) 11(46) 2(48) X(48)
48 160N 730W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16)
48 160N 730W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
72 175N 770W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 8(40) 2(42)
72 175N 770W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16)
72 175N 770W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
96 195N 810W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 7(31)
96 195N 810W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12)
96 195N 810W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
120 220N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19)
120 220N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
120 220N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 55 65 65 65
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
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