039 
 WTNT45 KNHC 161432
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013
 
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS WEAKENED. THE STRUCTURE OF
 THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WITH A COUPLE OF
 SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE FALLEN...AND ERIN IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OBSERVED WEAKENING IS
 LIKELY THE RESULT OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STABLE AIR...
 AS SEEN IN THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND AIRMASS PRODUCT. ALTHOUGH ERIN
 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER IN A FEW DAYS...
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE WHILE THE DEPRESSION
 REMAINS IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION CALLS
 FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
 POSSIBLE THAT ERIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN
 TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE MODEL
 GUIDANCE.
  
 THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THIS
 GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED DURING THE
 NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE FEELS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
 WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS...LOW-
 TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE
 NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...CAUSING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. BEYOND THAT
 TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED WHEN THE WEAK
 CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK
 FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/1500Z 16.9N  32.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 17.9N  34.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 19.1N  36.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 19.9N  38.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  18/1200Z 20.2N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  19/1200Z 21.1N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  20/1200Z 23.5N  49.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  21/1200Z 25.5N  52.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI