863 
 WTNT45 KNHC 150832
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007
 500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RAGGED AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED. 
 EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA IS INCONCLUSIVE AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
 MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE
 CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
 CONVECTIVE MASS...ESSENTIALLY IN BETWEEN TWO APPARENT CLOUD SYSTEM
 CENTERS.  GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME RELOCATION MAY
 BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECONNAISSANCE
 FLIGHT AROUND 1200 UTC.  
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/9.  THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK
 PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID TO
 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL STEER THE
 CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. 
 HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER LATER
 TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.  ACCORDINGLY...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR LANDFALL BUT IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED. 
  
 UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
 MEXICO.  THIS EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL
 SHEAR AND A MORE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.  STILL...THE CURRENT LACK
 OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  EVEN IF
 THE DEPRESSION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TODAY...IT
 WOULD ONLY HAVE A DAY OR SO OVER WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
 LANDFALL.  ONCE INLAND...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH
 DISSIPATION BY DAY 3...IF NOT SOONER. 
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
 SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0900Z 24.6N  91.8W    25 KT
  12HR VT     15/1800Z 25.3N  93.2W    30 KT
  24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.4N  95.2W    35 KT
  36HR VT     16/1800Z 27.3N  97.0W    40 KT
  48HR VT     17/0600Z 28.0N  98.9W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME
  
 
 
 865 
 WTNT44 KNHC 150832
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007
  
 THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN HAS MORE OF A BANDED
 APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS NOT YET
 WELL-DEFINED.  WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED...IT MAY BE
 THAT A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE
 STORM AND INFLOW FROM OVER THE COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH ARE
 SLOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE EARLIER
 QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN 275/16...UNCERTAIN DUE TO
 AMSU MICROWAVE DATA HINTING THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
 THE ADVISORY POSITION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEAN IS
 ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE... WITH A LARGE
 MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
 64W-77W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD
 GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RIDGING PERSISTING
 NORTH OF DEAN.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE
 MODEL GUIDANCE...AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FROM
 A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAHAMAS TO A MORE WESTWARD
 MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN.  THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A
 GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR A WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
 NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
 HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER
 BASED ON THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.  THE NEW
 TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
 GFS.
 
 DEAN SHOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT
 DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
 STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN BEST
 AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
 WINDS AND WARM WATER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEAN COULD BE
 NOTABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0900Z 12.2N  44.2W    45 KT
  12HR VT     15/1800Z 12.4N  46.6W    50 KT
  24HR VT     16/0600Z 12.8N  50.1W    55 KT
  36HR VT     16/1800Z 13.2N  53.7W    60 KT
  48HR VT     17/0600Z 13.8N  57.1W    70 KT
  72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N  63.0W    80 KT
  96HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N  68.5W    90 KT
 120HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N  74.0W   100 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN