691 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 090832
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013
  
 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PRACTICALLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
 WITH ERICK HAS DISSIPATED.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOL
 WATERS AND WILL SOON BE TRAVERSING EVEN LOWER SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
 UNLIKELY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
 BE GENEROUS.  ERICK SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND WILL PROBABLY BE
 DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.  THIS IS ALSO
 CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE BEST GUESS IS
 THAT IT REMAINS ON COURSE WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 310/9.  THE
 WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 AND DECELERATE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
 CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/0900Z 23.9N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  09/1800Z 24.8N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  10/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  10/1800Z 26.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH