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 457 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 090253
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013
  
 LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2239 UTC SSM/I IMAGE
 SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERICK TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WITH
 DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A BLEND OF
 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 35
 KT AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION
 ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED...AND ERICK IS
 DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS. STEADY
 WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE ERICK IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
 INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND ENTER AND AN EVEN MORE STABLE
 ATMOSPHERE. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS...IN
 LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
  
 THE CENTER OF ERICK IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA
 CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/09.
 A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER
 ERICK ON A SIMILAR HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE
 WESTERLY AND DECELERATE PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.  THE NHC TRACK
 FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/0300Z 23.2N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 24.1N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z 25.1N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  10/1200Z 25.7N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  11/0000Z 26.0N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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