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 757 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 060836
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
  
 ERICK CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS
 COLDER THAN -80C NEAR ITS CENTER...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL
 ATTEMPTS TO FORM AN EYE.  HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE DATA
 DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS HAVING TROUBLE
 BECOMING VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WITH THE MID-LEVEL EYE CONSISTENTLY TO
 THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS
 AND THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON
 THE MICROWAVE DATA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/7.  A WEAK
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY
 TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE MOTION
 BECOMING MORE WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A STRONGER RIDGE
 OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  WHILE
 THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A
 FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND SOME SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER MODELS.  THE GFS
 MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES...WHILE THE UKMET
 AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
 THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
 OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BASED IN THE SHORT-TERM ON THE INITIAL
 POSITION AND IN THE LONGER TERM BY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
 GUIDANCE.  WHILE IT KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO
 THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ON TO THE MEXICAN
 COAST SIMILAR TO THE GFS FORECAST.
 
 IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HIT THE MEXICAN COAST...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN
 TO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...ERICK SHOULD
 MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD BE AS
 COLD AS 20-21C BY THE 96 HOUR POINT.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
 WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
 LOW AROUND 96 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE
 GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN
 TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/0900Z 17.3N 103.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  06/1800Z 18.0N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  07/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  07/1800Z 20.3N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  08/0600Z 21.5N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  09/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  10/0600Z 24.0N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  11/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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