718 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 050256
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK IS DOMINATED BY A MASS OF COLD-TOPPED
 DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTIVE BANDING
 FEATURES HAVE ALSO INCREASED AND GAINED SLIGHTLY MORE CURVATURE
 DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A PAIR OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES WITHIN
 INDICATED THAT THE CENTER IS BETTER DEFINED BUT EXPOSED NORTHEAST
 OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB OF T2.5/35 KT...MICROWAVE-ADJUSTED
 OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS OF 3.0...AND AN
 AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.
  
 IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT RECENT FIXES SUGGEST
 A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/10. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
 SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
 CARIBBEAN SEA AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE
 NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE HEADING OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE HEAT RIDGE OVER THE
 SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLIDING EASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
 FEATURES...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT EXACTLY WHEN THE
 CHANGE IN TRACK WILL OCCUR.  THIS DETAIL TO THE FORECAST HAS
 IMPLICATIONS ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE ERICK WILL TRACK FROM THE COAST OF
 SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
 THE RIGHT AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ECMWF AND THE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
  
 MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PREVAILS OVER THE STORM...
 ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHEAR
 SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION THAT CAN OCCUR DURING
 THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...DESPITE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. WHILE THE
 UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES MAY WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL HAVE
 LIKELY ALREADY REACHED COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
 THEREFORE...STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
 PERIOD...WITH REMNANT LOW STATUS FOREAST BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT
 TERM AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LATEST TREND AND IS CLOSE TO THE
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS...IVCN AND ICON. 
  
 GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
 HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE
 SOUTWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/0300Z 14.9N 100.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 15.8N 101.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 16.6N 102.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 17.4N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 18.3N 105.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 19.9N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  09/0000Z 21.2N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  10/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA