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 073 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 021432
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007
 800 AM PDT THU AUG 02 2007
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ORGANIZED
 DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.  IN FACT...VERY FEW NORTHERLY VECTORS IN
 LAST NIGHT'S QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
 AN OPEN WAVE.  THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE A NEW CENTER
 FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CURRENT POSITION BENEATH A MID-
 LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AND 2.5
 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  ADDITIONALLY...A 0438Z SSMI/S
 MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND A 0538Z ASCAT OVERPASS INTERPRETATION OF
 SEVERE VERTICAL DECOUPLING SUPPORT LOWERING THE CYCLONE TO
 DEPRESSION STRENGTH.    
 
 BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH
 THE MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE 10 TO 15 KT UPPER NORTHERLIES SHOULD
 PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 ADJUSTED TO REFLECT DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
 PERIOD.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
 LOW AS IT PROGRESSES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
 STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER DOES REFORM CLOSER TO
 THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION...
 RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM COULD OCCUR.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/9 WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF
 ABOUT 40 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  ERICK SHOULD
 CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A THE
 DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/1500Z 13.6N 130.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N 131.4W    30 KT
  24HR VT     03/1200Z 13.9N 133.5W    30 KT
  36HR VT     04/0000Z 14.2N 135.2W    30 KT
  48HR VT     04/1200Z 14.3N 137.3W    30 KT
  72HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N 142.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/1200Z 14.5N 145.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     07/1200Z 14.5N 149.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
 
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