Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 359 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 020840
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007
 200 AM PDT THU AUG 02 2007
 
 LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERICK HAS BEEN QUITE A
 CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANALYSIS OF A 0249 UTC QSCT PASS
 ESTIMATED A CENTER ALIGNED WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...
 WHILE AN AMSU-B PASS FROM 0624 UTC DEPICTED A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  CONVENTIONAL INFRARED
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVEN
 FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE REFORMING IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER...I
 AM HESITATE TO MAKE SUCH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITHOUT VISIBLE
 IMAGERY OR OTHER MORE CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE.
 
 DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT
 FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35 KT DUE TO THE
 UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION AS WELL AS A DECREASE IN
 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. IF
 THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ORGANIZATION...THEN LITTLE
 STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR.  ON THE OTHER HAND IF REFORMATION
 OCCURS...A SLIGHTLY LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND 26-27C WATERS
 WOULD HELP THE CYCLONE INTENSIFY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS
 IN 3 OR SO DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY
 WITH THE SHIPS...SUPERENSEMBLE...AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.      
   
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12.  ERICK IS FORECAST TO
 CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
 TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  AS WITH THE EARLIER MODEL
 GUIDANCE...THE GREATEST VARIATION IS WITH THE FORWARD MOTION. THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...AND UKMET
 SOLUTIONS.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 13.3N 130.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.4N 131.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 133.5W    40 KT
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 13.8N 135.2W    45 KT
  48HR VT     04/0600Z 14.2N 137.1W    45 KT
  72HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 141.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     07/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for ERICK

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman