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 343 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 020233
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007
 800 PM PDT WED AUG 01 2007
  
 IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF ERICK IN BOTH
 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING.  THE
 IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
 ELONGATED AND LESS DEFINED.  HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
 CLEARLY EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF REFORMATION OCCURS IN
 THAT AREA. 
  
 THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED
 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
 CONTINUES TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST
 THAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING
 SOME STRENGTHENING.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
 WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL
 DEVELOPMENT. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10.  ERICK IS FORECAST TO
 CONTINUE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. 
 MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH VARYING
 FORWARD SPEEDS.  THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE
 FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER CYCLONE DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF ERICK. 
 THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL
 TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0300Z 13.4N 128.6W    35 KT
  12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.6N 130.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     03/0000Z 13.9N 131.7W    40 KT
  36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.1N 133.4W    45 KT
  48HR VT     04/0000Z 14.4N 135.3W    45 KT
  72HR VT     05/0000Z 14.8N 138.8W    45 KT
  96HR VT     06/0000Z 14.9N 142.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 146.0W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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