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 252 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 011434
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007
 800 AM PDT WED AUG 01 2007
  
 LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS
 INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
 ORGANIZATION OR STRUCTURE OF ERICK.  STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR
 CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION 
 LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AMORPHOUS BLOB OF DEEP
 CONVECTION.  THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES IS 35 KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. 
 DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR OVER
 THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY FALLING
 AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LESS THAN IDEAL. 
 THEREFORE ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.
  
 A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT ERICK IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
 275/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BE
 THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 THEREFORE ERICK SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
 THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH LATEST TRACK MODEL TRENDS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 13.2N 126.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 13.3N 127.2W    35 KT
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 129.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N 130.6W    45 KT
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 13.9N 132.5W    45 KT
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 14.0N 136.0W    45 KT
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 14.0N 139.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     06/1200Z 14.0N 142.5W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME
  
 
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