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 321 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 010223
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007
 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2007
  
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND 
 DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INSIST THAT THE
 SYSTEM IS A TROPICAL STORM. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS. 
 HOWEVER...ERICK IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND
 VERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.   THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW
 FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING ONLY AS INDICATED BY SHIPS. GLOBAL
 MODELS DO NOT INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE.
 
 ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. A STRONG
 ELONGATED EAST-WEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY ANCHORED
 NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP ERICK
 ON A WESTWARD TRACK TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GLOBAL MODELS AND
 BOTH HWRF AND GFDL KEEP ERICK ON A WESTWARD PATH AND SO DOES THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0300Z 13.1N 124.4W    35 KT
  12HR VT     01/1200Z 13.1N 125.9W    35 KT
  24HR VT     02/0000Z 13.5N 128.2W    35 KT
  36HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 130.5W    35 KT
  48HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N 132.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     04/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W    40 KT
  96HR VT     05/0000Z 13.5N 140.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     06/0000Z 13.5N 144.5W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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