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 339 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 312031
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007
 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2007
  
 SHEARED BUT STRONG CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR ABOUT 12 HR NEAR AND
 TO THE WEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 1125 MILES
 SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON
 THIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WITH
 AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT...A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
 SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/12.  WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL SHOW A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH
 OF THE DEPRESSION...ALBEIT A RIDGE WITH A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY
 DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING TO ITS NORTH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE
 MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
 THROUGH 120 HR.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE WESTWARD
 OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SPEED A SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.  NHC
 TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS...
 WHICH MERGES THE DEPRESSION WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE FORMING TO THE
 EAST.  WHILE THERE IS A BROAD DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION...
 IT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL DEVELOP FAST ENOUGH FOR
 THE NOGAPS TO VERIFY.  THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A
 GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 20
 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
 SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE DEPRESSION.  THE
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
 THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THE GFS...THE ECMWF...AND THE NOGAPS
 FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE IN LESS THAN 24 HR...WHILE THE
 CANADIAN AND THE UKMET FORECAST HOSTILE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
 BEYOND THAT TIME.  FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
 TOWARD THE CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING
 AFTER 24 HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT
 SURVIVE THE FIRST 24 HR DUE TO THE SHEAR AND DRY AIR.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/2100Z 13.3N 123.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     01/0600Z 13.6N 125.6W    30 KT
  24HR VT     01/1800Z 13.9N 127.6W    30 KT
  36HR VT     02/0600Z 14.1N 129.8W    35 KT
  48HR VT     02/1800Z 14.1N 132.0W    35 KT
  72HR VT     03/1800Z 14.0N 136.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     04/1800Z 14.0N 140.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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