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 952 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 180236
 TCDEP1
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015
 
 Organized deep convection has been absent from the center for about
 12 hours now, and what little convection that does exist is
 occurring in a narrow band in the northwestern quadrant more than
 75 nmi from the center. Therefore, Enrique no longer meets the
 criteria of a tropical cyclone, and the system is being designated
 as a remnant low and advisories are being discontinued at this time.
 The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT
 surface wind data. Unfavorable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions
 should inhibit the re-development of persistent deep convection, so
 gradual weakening and spin down of the large vortex is expected
 over the next several days. The NHC official forecast calls for
 dissipation by 120 hours, similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
 global models.
 
 The initial motion is now 225/02 kt. The preponderance of the NHC
 model guidance continues to indicate that post-tropical Enrique
 should make a slow and tight counter-clockwise loop during the next
 48 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion.  The official
 track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
 advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.
 
 For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas
 Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
 header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0300Z 20.3N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  12H  18/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  19/0000Z 19.8N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  19/1200Z 20.1N 137.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  20/0000Z 20.6N 136.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  21/0000Z 21.9N 137.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  22/0000Z 23.4N 138.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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