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 568 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 171432
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015
 
 Enrique has changed little in organization over the past several
 hours as it continues to generate small bursts of convection north
 of the center.  There is no recent scatterometer data from the
 central core, so the intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity
 from the previous advisory.  The cyclone should decay over sea
 surface temperatures of 25C, and it is expected to degenerate into a
 remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or so.  It should be noted
 that while the forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate after
 96 hours, several dynamical models forecast it to last for more than
 120 hours.
 
 The initial motion is now 270/3.  The track guidance suggests that
 Enrique and its remnants should make a counter-clockwise loop during
 the next three days or so, followed by a northwestward motion.  The
 new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is a
 blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/1500Z 20.5N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  18/0000Z 20.5N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  18/1200Z 20.1N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  19/0000Z 19.8N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/1200Z 20.0N 137.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/1200Z 22.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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