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 695 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 170856
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015
 
 Data from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that Enrique had not
 weakened quite as much as earlier estimated, and that there were
 still tropical storm force winds over the northwest quadrant of the
 cyclone.  The current intensity estimate is set at 35 kt,
 resulting in the redesignation of the system as a tropical storm.
 Several hours ago, there was a small burst of deep convection over
 the northern portion of the circulation.  Recently, however that
 convection is dissipating.  Enrique should be traversing waters
 cooler than 25 deg C and entraining rather stable air.  Therefore,
 weakening is still anticipated and the system is forecast to
 degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours.  This is also
 consistent with the SHIPS guidance.
 
 The center appears to be gradually turning to the left and the
 initial motion estimate is now 290/5 kt.  Over the next few days,
 Enrique should continue to turn to the left, and move in a general
 counterclockwise loop while embedded within a low- to mid-level
 cyclonic gyre.  The official track forecast is a blend of the
 latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/0900Z 20.6N 136.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  17/1800Z 20.7N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  18/0600Z 20.5N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  18/1800Z 20.0N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/0600Z 19.9N 137.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/0600Z 20.4N 137.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/0600Z 21.5N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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