WTPZ41 KNHC 170233
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015
Enrique is a well-defined vortex, mainly consisting of low-level
stratocumulus clouds. Although a small thunderstorm cluster has
developed north of the cyclone's center in the last couple of hours,
overall Enrique has been devoid of any significant deep convection
near the center for about 12 hours. Dvorak current intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB have dropped to a 1.5, or 25 kt. A 2024Z
RapidScat pass suggested peak surface winds in Enrique of 40 kt,
but these winds are likely rain-inflated and may not be reliable.
Based on the tight swirl remaining in the low cloud field, the
initial intensity remains at 30 kt.
As the cyclone should remain over cool 24-25 degree C water and
embedded within dry stable air, it is anticipated that Enrique will
soon become a remnant low. Due to the large size of the vortex,
however, it will likely take four to five days for Enrique's remnant
low to spin down and dissipate, as indicated by the global models.
Enrique is moving toward the northwest at 5 kt due to the steering
induced by a surface high to its north. As Hurricane Dolores
approaches from the southeast, the low-level steering near Enrique
will collapse in a day or so. This should allow Enrique to meander
until dissipation occurs.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 20.5N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 20.7N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z 20.7N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 20.3N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 20.0N 137.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 19.9N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z 20.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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