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 794 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 170233
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015
 
 Enrique is a well-defined vortex, mainly consisting of low-level
 stratocumulus clouds.  Although a small thunderstorm cluster has
 developed north of the cyclone's center in the last couple of hours,
 overall Enrique has been devoid of any significant deep convection
 near the center for about 12 hours.  Dvorak current intensity
 numbers from TAFB and SAB have dropped to a 1.5, or 25 kt.  A 2024Z
 RapidScat pass suggested peak surface winds in Enrique of 40 kt,
 but these winds are likely rain-inflated and may not be reliable.
 Based on the tight swirl remaining in the low cloud field, the
 initial intensity remains at 30 kt.
 
 As the cyclone should remain over cool 24-25 degree C water and
 embedded within dry stable air, it is anticipated that Enrique will
 soon become a remnant low.  Due to the large size of the vortex,
 however, it will likely take four to five days for Enrique's remnant
 low to spin down and dissipate, as indicated by the global models.
 
 Enrique is moving toward the northwest at 5 kt due to the steering
 induced by a surface high to its north.  As Hurricane Dolores
 approaches from the southeast, the low-level steering near Enrique
 will collapse in a day or so.  This should allow Enrique to meander
 until dissipation occurs.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/0300Z 20.5N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  17/1200Z 20.7N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  18/0000Z 20.7N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  18/1200Z 20.3N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/0000Z 20.0N 137.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/0000Z 19.9N 137.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/0000Z 20.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea
 
 
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