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 097 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 162034
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015
 
 Enrique has become a swirl of low- and mid-level clouds with
 isolated thunderstorm activity as the center moves over sea surface
 temperatures of about 25C.  The initial intensity is decreased to
 30 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
 and SAB.  The forecast track keeps the cyclone over cool waters,
 and it is expected to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours
 and dissipate completely between 96-120 hours.
 
 A jog to the north has occurred since the last advisory, and the
 initial motion is now 300/7.  A west-northwestward motion should
 continue for another 12 hours or so.  After that, steering currents
 weaken, and the cyclone or its remnants should slow down as it
 turns westward and southward.  The global models agree that the
 remnants of Enrique will be slow moving during the 48-96 hour
 period, although there are differences in the details of the tracks.
 The new forecast track is similar to the previous track in showing
 a southward turn after 36 hours, followed by little motion from
 48-96 hours.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/2100Z 20.2N 135.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  17/0600Z 20.6N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  17/1800Z 20.6N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  18/0600Z 20.5N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/1800Z 20.1N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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