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 915 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 161435
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015
 
 While the convection associated with Enrique continues to decrease,
 data from the RapidScat instrument on the International Space
 Station suggest the system still had tropical storm force winds
 near 1100 UTC.  Based on these data as well as Dvorak intensity
 estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.
 Enrique is encountering cool sea surface temperatures and a drier
 air mass, and this combination should lead to the the cyclone's
 dissipation. Unless the convection makes an unexpected return,
 Enrique should weaken to a depression during the next several hours
 and degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36 hours, if not sooner.
 
 The initial motion is 295/7. A slow west-northwestward motion should
 continue for another 24 hours or so.  After that, steering currents
 weaken, and the cyclone should turn westward and slow down.  Most of
 the global models take the remnant low slowly west-southwestward,
 then southward in a few days.  The latest NHC track is close to the
 previous advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/1500Z 19.9N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 20.3N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 20.5N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 20.4N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/1200Z 20.2N 138.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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