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 828 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 160845
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015
 
 The convective organization of Enrique continues to wane with
 the remaining thunderstorm activity located well to the north
 of the center.  A couple of recent partial ASCAT passes
 showed winds to near 35-kt, so Enrique remains a tropical
 storm for this advisory.  Gradual weakening is expected during the
 next couple of days while the cyclone moves over cool water and
 in an environment of moderate south-southwesterly shear.  Enrique
 is forecast to become a remnant low within a day or so.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 295/6. A slow west-northwestward
 motion should continue for another 24 hours, before steering
 currents weaken and the cyclone turns westward and slows down.
 Most of the global models take the remnant low slowly
 west-southwestward, then southward in a few days.  The latest NHC
 track is close to the previous advisory and the GFS ensemble mean.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0900Z 19.5N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  16/1800Z 19.9N 135.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/0600Z 20.4N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  17/1800Z 20.4N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/0600Z 20.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
 
 996 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 160845
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
 300 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
 
 Enhanced B-D curve infrared and microwave imagery show that Dolores
 is exhibiting annular hurricane characteristics this morning, with
 its distinctly symmetric, thick eyewall donut-shaped appearance,
 large 30 nmi eye, and a lack of well-defined rainbands.  Decreasing
 26-28C sea surface temperatures and light southeasterly shear appear
 to be promoting Dolores' cloud pattern.  For this advisory, the
 initial intensity is held at 100 kt based on a blend of subjective
 and objective satellite intensity estimates.  Because of Dolores'
 annular structure, only slight weakening is expected through the
 36 hour period.  Afterward, a sharp decrease in SSTs, a more stable
 thermodynamic environment, and increasing vertical shear should
 cause the cyclone to weaken more quickly.
 
 After smoothing out the trochoidal oscillations, the long-term
 motion is estimated to be 300/6.  There is no significant change to
 the track forecast philosophy.  Dolores should continue to be
 steered by the flow produced by the building subtropical ridge and
 move on a west-northwestward to an eventual northwestward heading
 around the western periphery of the anticyclone.  Much uncertainty
 and large spread exists in the guidance suite beyond 72 hours.
 Global and hurricane models either show a turn toward the
 west-northwest in response to the building ridge or, a northwest to
 north-northwest track due to a mid- to upper-level trough
 approaching from the northwest.  The NHC forecast basically splits
 these two solutions and follows the GFEX and TVCN multi-models, and
 is a little to the right of the previous advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0900Z 19.5N 111.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  16/1800Z 20.0N 112.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  17/0600Z 20.6N 113.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  17/1800Z 21.0N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  18/0600Z 21.6N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  19/0600Z 24.5N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  20/0600Z 28.0N 122.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  21/0600Z 30.5N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts
 
 
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