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 082 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 160238
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015
 
 The initial motion estimate is 290/06 kt. There is no significant
 change to the previous track or intensity forecast reasonings. For
 the next 96-120 hours, Enrique is forecast to remain in a sheared
 environment while it moves slowly west-northwestward to westward
 along the south side of a weakening mid-level ridge, and gradually
 weaken as the cyclone moves over sub-25C SSTs and into a much drier
 airmass.
 
 Enrique is forecast to become a tropical depression on Thursday and
 degenerate into a remnant low by Friday, after which the weak and
 vertically shallow cyclone could drift southward or stall due to
 weakening steering currents. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical
 intensity model shows Enrique completely dissipating by 36 hours.
 However, the tropical cyclone possesses a fairly large circulation,
 which should take a longer-than-average amount of time to spin down.
 As such, the solution of the GFS and ECMWF models holding onto the
 remnant low through at least 96 hours has been preferred in this
 advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0300Z 19.2N 134.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  16/1200Z 19.8N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/0000Z 20.3N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  17/1200Z 20.5N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  18/0000Z 20.3N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/0000Z 19.8N 137.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/0000Z 19.7N 137.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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