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 553 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 152037
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015
 
 Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate and the
 upper-level outflow has become poorly defined. The area of deep
 convection has shrunk while the low-level center remains located on
 the southern edge of the thunderstorm activity.  The latest Dvorak
 estimates support lowering the initial intensity to 35 kt. Enrique
 is already over relatively cool waters and additional weakening is
 forecast, with the system becoming a remnant low by 48 hours. In
 fact, the SHIPS model, as well as the intensity model consensus,
 dissipate the cyclone in 36 hours or so.
 
 Enrique is still moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees
 at 7 knots. However, the narrow ridge to the north is forecast to
 weaken in a day or two and the steering currents are expected to
 collapse. This steering pattern will likely keep Enrique and its
 remnants moving slowly toward the west-northwest or west,
 accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, until dissipation
 occurs in 4 or 5 days.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/2100Z 19.0N 133.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  16/0600Z 19.5N 134.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  16/1800Z 20.3N 135.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  17/0600Z 20.7N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  17/1800Z 20.6N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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