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 122 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 150235
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015
 
 Enrique has not changed much during the last several hours.  The
 cyclone is maintaining a small central dense overcast and rain
 bands over the northern portion of the circulation.  The initial
 intensity is held at 45 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak
 classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.  Enrique is
 headed for cooler water, and it should have crossed the 26 C
 isotherm by Wednesday morning.  These cool waters combined with an
 increasingly more stable air mass and southwesterly shear should
 cause steady weakening.  Enrique will likely become a remnant low
 in 2 to 3 days.  The intensity models are in good agreement, and
 this forecast is close to the intensity model consensus.
 
 The storm continues moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt.  This
 motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days while
 the system remains steered by a narrow mid-level ridge.  After that
 time, the cyclone is forecast to decelerate and then drift southward
 when the steering currents collapse as Hurricane Dolores approaches
 from the east.  This track forecast is similar to the previous one
 and is close to the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on an ASCAT
 pass from earlier today.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0300Z 18.7N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 19.2N 132.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 19.8N 133.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  16/1200Z 20.4N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  17/0000Z 20.9N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  18/0000Z 21.0N 136.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/0000Z 20.5N 136.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  20/0000Z 20.2N 136.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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