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 253 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 141433
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015
 
 The center is now embedded within the deep convection, which, in
 fact, has increased during the past several hours. The upper-level
 outflow has also expanded westward and became better defined.
 Consequently, the Dvorak numbers are a little higher at 1200 UTC.
 Data from ASCAT indicate that the cyclone's intensity is 40 kt, and
 these winds are confined to a small area to the north and east of
 the center. Enrique is now crossing a small tongue of warm waters,
 and this probably caused the slight increase in organization. Soon,
 the circulation will move over cooler waters, and on this basis, the
 NHC forecast calls for little change in strength today with a
 gradual weakening thereafter. The cyclone is forecast to become a
 remnant low in about 72 hours or sooner.
 
 The best estimate of the initial motion is 305/8 kt. The cyclone is
 is forecast to continue on a track between the northwest and the
 west-northwest during the next couple of days, steered by the
 flow to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. In about 3 days,
 these steering currents are forecast to collapse due to the approach
 of the larger circulation of Dolores, and most likely, Enrique
 will meander until dissipation.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/1500Z 18.1N 129.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  15/0000Z 18.3N 130.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  15/1200Z 18.7N 131.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  16/0000Z 19.5N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  16/1200Z 20.0N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  17/1200Z 20.5N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  18/1200Z 20.5N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/1200Z 20.3N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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