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 403 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 140835
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015
 
 Deep convection associated with Enrique has increased in coverage
 overnight, however, the overall organization of the system has not
 changed appreciably.  A recent ASCAT overpass was very helpful in
 locating the center, and indicated that the maximum winds remain
 near 35 kt.  Little change in intensity is forecast during the next
 day or so. After that time, Enrique is expected to weaken while it
 moves into an area of increasing southerly wind shear and over
 cooler waters.  The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in
 about 72 hours.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt. Enrique is expected to
 continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next couple of
 days to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. In about 3 days, the
 cyclone is forecast to decelerate as the low-level steering flow
 weakens over the far eastern Pacific due to the approach of Dolores'
 large circulation.  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to
 the previous advisory, but shows the remnant low becoming nearly
 stationary a bit east of the previous 4- and 5-day positions.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/0900Z 17.3N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  14/1800Z 17.7N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  15/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  15/1800Z 18.8N 132.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  16/0600Z 19.3N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  17/0600Z 20.3N 136.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  18/0600Z 20.3N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/0600Z 19.5N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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