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 090 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 140232
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 800 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015
 
 Enrique continues to produce a limited amount of deep convection,
 likely due to the stable air mass that it is embedded within.
 Satellite images show a small area of thunderstorms just north of
 the center and a more organized band over the northeastern
 quadrant.  The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, but Dvorak
 T-numbers suggest that this could be generous.  Little change in
 strength is expected during the next day or two.  After that time,
 however, weakening is forecast when the storm moves over water
 cooler than 26 C and into an environment of higher wind shear.  The
 intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and is
 in good agreement with the intensity model consensus.
 
 The storm has made the expected turn to the left, and the latest
 initial motion estimate is 290/8 kt.  A continued west-northwestward
 motion at about the same speed is predicted for the next 2 to 3 days
 while Enrique remains steered by a narrow mid-level ridge.  After
 that time, a considerable slowdown is expected, when the steering
 currents collapse in response to Hurricane Dolores to the east and a
 deep-layer trough extending southwestward from the west coast of
 the United States.  The new NHC track forecast is a little south of
 the previous one, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/0300Z 16.8N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  14/1200Z 17.3N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  15/0000Z 17.9N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  15/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  16/0000Z 18.8N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  17/0000Z 19.9N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  18/0000Z 20.0N 137.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/0000Z 19.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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