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 438 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 132048
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015
 
 The main convective band around Enrique is becoming increasingly
 fragmented.  Despite this, Dvorak current intensity estimates from
 ADT, TAFB, and SAB remain at minimal tropical storm strength. Thus
 Enrique's maximum winds are assessed at 35 kt.  A partial pass by
 the ASCAT-B scatterometer indicated that the tropical-storm-force
 winds, if they exist, are within no more than 60 nm from the center.
 
 It appears that Enrique will continue to have difficult maintaining
 organized convection, as the atmosphere in which it is embedded has
 limited thermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below
 26.5 deg C in less than two days.  Additionally, the vertical shear
 - which is low now - is anticipated to increase to about 15 kt
 out of the south in about 36 hours, as Enrique reaches the
 western periphery of an upper-level high.  The combination of these
 effects should result in gradual weakening of the cyclone after
 a day or two and the system becoming a remnant low in about
 four days.  The official intensity forecast is based upon the
 multimodel consensus technique - IVCN - and is reduced somewhat from
 the previous NHC forecast.
 
 Enrique is moving toward the northwest at about 10 kt, primarily due
 to a deep-layer ridge to its north.  The dynamical models have been
 unanimously in agreement that Enrique should have already taken a
 west-northwestward turn, which has not yet materialized today.  It
 is possible though that in the last couple of hours that Enrique has
 begun this turn toward the west-northwest.  After moving toward the
 west-northwest at about the same rate of speed for the next
 three to four days, it is anticipated that Enrique's movement as a
 remnant low should slow as the lower tropospheric steering flow
 weakens. The reliable dynamical models are tightly clustered on this
 scenario. The official track forecast is based upon the multimodel
 consensus technique - TVCN - and is slightly north of the predicted
 track from the previous advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/2100Z 16.7N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  14/0600Z 17.4N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  14/1800Z 18.1N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  15/0600Z 18.4N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  15/1800Z 18.8N 132.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  16/1800Z 20.0N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  17/1800Z 20.5N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  18/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea
 
 
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